Macro Aggressions
Is it really all coming apart at the seams?
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Can I just Shock You? I Don’t Like Tariffs
April 2nd will mark the first anniversary of the Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, and things haven’t gone the way anyone thought. The forecasts of an immediate recession proved… Read more ⇢
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The Pain Train Rattles Along
The government’s Employment Rights Bill, the most significant expansion of worker protections in a generation, is beginning to come into force. By that, I mean it’s having an impact on… Read more ⇢
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Europe is Running Out of Energy
Three years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended the assumptions on which European energy policy had rested for a generation. The acute crisis phase in the winter… Read more ⇢
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New Year, Same Problem
The New Year brings with it the customary flurry of optimistic economic commentary. Forecasters get a trouser tumescence and revise the growth outlook slightly upward, ministers cite green shoots, business… Read more ⇢
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The Year the Old Economic Consensus Broke
As 2025 draws to a close, it is worth stepping back from the noise of daily market moves and political squabbles to ask what the year actually meant economically. The… Read more ⇢
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The American Consumer is Undefeated
American economists have spent most of 2025 waiting for the consumer to buckle. Excess savings exhausted, student loan repayments resumed, credit card balances at record highs. All the ingredients for… Read more ⇢
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Pre-Budget Rumours Are Alarming
With the Autumn Budget one week away, the ritual of pre-announcement briefings is underway. Capital gains tax increases, further pension relief restrictions, and possible changes to inheritance tax thresholds are… Read more ⇢
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France: Sleepwalking into a Fiscal Crisis
French 10-year government bond yields have pushed above 3.5% as investors process the reality of a government unable to pass a budget through a fragmented National Assembly. This yield represents… Read more ⇢
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The Economic Scorecard
It is now just over a year since Labour entered office with promises to deliver the highest sustained growth of any G7 economy. The ambition was admirable; the delivery has… Read more ⇢
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Productivity is Not a Puzzle
The UK’s productivity statistics, released this week, show output per hour essentially flat for the third consecutive quarter. Economists call this the “productivity puzzle.” It is not puzzling at all.… Read more ⇢
Macro Aggressions 